Estimation of Software Project Success and Completion Rate Using Gompertz Growth Function 


Vol. 13,  No. 5, pp. 709-716, Oct.  2006
10.3745/KIPSTD.2006.13.5.709


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  Abstract

As the software complexity increases, the development success rate decreases and failure rate increases exponentially. The failure rate related to the software size can be described by a growth function. Based on this phenomenon, this paper estimates the development success and completion rate using the Gompertz growth function. At first, we transformed a software size of numerically suggested n Square of 10 into a logarithm and kept the data interval constantly. We tried to derive a functional relationship between the development success rate and the completion rate according to the change of logarithmic software size. However, we could not find a function which can represent this relationship. Therefore, we introduced the failure rate and the cancel rate which are inverse to the development success rate and completion rate, respectively. Then, we indicated the relation between development failure rate and cancel rate based on the change of software size, as a type of growth function. Finally, as we made the Gompertz growth function with the function which describes the cancel rate and the failure rate properly. We could express the actual data suitably. When you apply the growth function model that I suggested, you will be able to get the success rate and completion rate of particular size of software very accurately.

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[IEEE Style]

S. U. Lee, "Estimation of Software Project Success and Completion Rate Using Gompertz Growth Function," The KIPS Transactions:PartD, vol. 13, no. 5, pp. 709-716, 2006. DOI: 10.3745/KIPSTD.2006.13.5.709.

[ACM Style]

Sang Un Lee. 2006. Estimation of Software Project Success and Completion Rate Using Gompertz Growth Function. The KIPS Transactions:PartD, 13, 5, (2006), 709-716. DOI: 10.3745/KIPSTD.2006.13.5.709.

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